by PAUL RAYNER

The optimism found earlier in the spring for some areas of agriculture may be disappearing soon due to the growing concerns over something no one, producers included, have any hope of controlling.

Although commodity prices were looking good, some in the field of farming warned that a drought could make them irrelevant. The dry conditions in the Southwestern Manitoba area may be pointing in that direction.

“It’s extremely dry, record dry, really dry,” said Scott Day, Crop Diversification Specialist for Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives. “We have these maps sent out to us from Agriculture Canada and it has us in a record drought situation.”

He said in Melita, where he is based and which is indicated as record dry, the Souris River has essentially run dry, which is more than unusual.

“It’s trickling in various areas. No one remembers it doing this before, not in spring. It is flowing in Souris, but there is almost nothing in Melita.”

Dry conditions are not unknown for the area, or even unknown recently. As Day explained, the springs of 2006 and 2007 were dry as well. The difference was there was enough moisture left in the ground from the previous two wet years to get things going. That now is done.

“There is no residual moisture left,” he stated, “whether this is the worst or not, it is really bad.”

In Boissevain specifically, which the Agriculture Canada maps say is extremely dry, a certain level of precipitation precision can now be found. About four weeks ago, through the Weather Links program, a weather station has been installed at Double Diamond. Although it does not reach back too far at this point, according to Dale Houston of Double Diamond, it gives a look at the most recent period. For example, Houston said, there was no precipitation recorded. So far in May, there have been .06 inches.

As Day says, the problem reaches back further than this spring. According to him, there has not been a really significant bout of precipitation since July 1, 2007.

“Really, we have had nothing over 10-15 mm (.4 to .8 inches) in almost 10 months.”

He said there has been a bit of snow here and there, but not enough, especially since snow is not as good as rain for ground moisture. He also warned about using overall numbers as gospel. If rain comes in a few millimeters at a time, as opposed to significant rains, it tends to dry up before it does any good.

According to maps on a Natural Resource Canada/Atlas of Canada web site, the annual mean of precipitation for January in the area is between 21 to 40 mms (.78 to 1.5 inches) and the same in April. Day himself said he is not sure what the average would be for this time of the year, but did say he had a Ag Canada map indicating we were somewhere around one third normal.

What does this mean for agriculture? Day said it is not necessarily doom and gloom yet for the crops, but things are starting to get dicey.

“If we got an inch of rain right now, we would have had the best seeding season in years. If we had rain, we would not have had a bad start. But it is starting to cause problems. We need a normal or above normal summer, because we’re already behind the 8-ball. Right now, we need at least normal precipitation because of the lack of residual soil moisture.”

Where the pain is already showing is where it was prior to the spring. The cattle producers were already in tough shape due to a variety of factors, such as low prices for cattle versus high prices for feed. They needed rain for a couple of reasons, both of which, Day said, were making their situation very difficult.

“They are having to haul water,” Day explained, “and buy feed. They have high feed prices and low commodity prices. They need a lot of rain for the water, and to grow on the pasture. With the crops, we could get an inch of rain and feel good for two weeks. Livestock guys need a lot of rain.”

These issues may be making decisions regarding seeding. Day said seeding between the Boissevain and Melita areas has not proceeded for some time.

“From west of Killarney to Melita, it has essentially stopped, it essentially stopped a week ago. There is maybe two thirds seeded. They are waiting for rain.”

As well, they may be waiting for various crop insurance deadlines, which determine when a crop must be planted to be insured and begin in June. Decisions could be held back to see what conditions are for specific crops at the time the deadline comes. The livestock situation may also play a role in this decision, as farmers with cattle may choose to put in emergency feed acres to help cut their costs. Day said one concern regarding waiting is seed availability.

What is frustrating, as Day explained, is how localized the situation is. The Red River Valley is off to a good start. Across the border Minot has received rain. Southeast Saskatchewan is dry, but they did have a little more ground moisture.

“The Southwest corner of Manitoba is the dry spot.” Day explained. “This is not as widespread as other years. Boissevain may have got more in the past year than Melita. But we may all be in the same boat by now.”

Day did say that a cool, dry spring is better than a hot, dry spring on average. The May 22 Weather Network forecast did call for some light rain on the weekend, with 70% possibilities for Saturday and 80% for Monday, but forecasts have called for non-existent rains before and there is no idea at this point how much rain if any will fall. Day repeated a saying “each day we are closer to our next rain”, and said at this point it is hard to predict the long-term situation.

“It all depends on how the rest of the year goes.”